An Island at a Crossroads: Brexit Britain and the Authoritarian Threat
Alex Baxter, University of Oxford
Executive Summary
While the UK, a longtime leading liberal democracy, is not yet on the path of regression, it may stand on the precipice of significant democratic backsliding. Its primary far-right party, Reform UK, swept local elections in May 2025 and maintains a nationwide polling lead. With a general election set to take place by summer 2029, continuation of this form could lead Reform to gain an outright majority in the parliament at Westminster. Drawing its roots from extremists such as Enoch Powell, Reform is among the most politically and socially illiberal, most populist, and most authoritarian parties in Europe; its founder and leader, Nigel Farage, was one of the primary proponents of the successful Brexit campaign in 2016. Its policy platform has proposed sweeping changes which could drastically erode Britain’s liberal democratic institutions and laws.
Outside of the success of the Brexit campaign itself, Reform’s rise has driven Britain’s traditional main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, on their own increasingly politically illiberal bents during their successive governmental terms, generating repressive protest laws, attempted circumvention of international human rights law, and repeated demonization of immigrants and ethnic minorities. Equally, nativist and authoritarian ideals have spread in Britain through a new media ecosphere centered around the GB News channel and widespread propagation of far-right discourse on Elon Musk’s revamped Twitter, now renamed as “X”. While left-wing nationalist parties in Wales and Scotland have had success in staving Reform off, attempts by the main parties to win voters back through increased traditionalism and nativism on their own part have proven starkly unsuccessful.
While the British public leans socially liberal, its sympathy towards authoritarian “will of the majority” ideals provides fertile ground for the far right to grow. This is especially true of Reform’s voters, who are far more populist, traditionalist, authoritarian, and nationalist than any others in Britain. Their grievances have been most notably expressed through nationwide violent protests in the summers of 2024 and 2025, which may be repeated in coming years. Without a major pivot and resurgence from the main parties in the coming years, Britain has the potential to face democratic backsliding under a Reform government.
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Suggested citation: Baxter, Alex. 2026. “An Island at a Crossroads: Brexit Britain and the Authoritarian Threat.” AUTHLIB Country Papers 3.
