Between Renewal and Regression: The Supply and Demand of Illiberalism in Poland
Marta Żerkowska-Balas, SWPS University
Piotr Zagórski, Polish Academy of Sciences
Radosław Markowski, SWPS University
Executive Summary
Poland stands at a crossroads between democratic renewal and persistent illiberalism. After nearly a decade of institutional backsliding under the Law and Justice (PiS) party, the 2023 parliamentary election and subsequent political shift have opened space for democratic restoration; but deep structural and attitudinal challenges remain. Drawing on recent survey evidence, this report analyses both the supply side (illiberal and populist actors) and demand side (citizens’ attitudes toward democracy) of Poland’s democratic trajectory.
PiS and the Confederation party anchor the illiberal pole of Polish politics. While PiS built an electoral majority around paternalist populism, welfare redistribution, anti-German and national-Catholic identity, Confederation mobilizes younger and middle-aged, market-libertarian, and nationalist—at times xenophobic and antisemitic—voters through anti-system and anti-EU appeals. Together they have mainstreamed exclusionary and anti-pluralist narratives, reshaping public discourse even after losing office.
On the demand side, support for populist, illiberal, and authoritarian orientations remains significant but uneven. Younger cohorts express lower trust in institutions and greater openness to strong leadership, though not necessarily to authoritarianism. Education continues to act as a democratic buffer, while gender gaps persist: men show higher illiberal and populist leanings than women. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with government performance, most Poles still value democracy in principle, though increasingly detached from its liberal foundations.
The next two to three years will be critical. The 2027 parliamentary elections, EU-Poland relations, and the pace of judicial reforms will determine whether Poland consolidates its democratic recovery or falls back into the hands of anti-liberal forces, as of today the likely PiS-Confederation coalition. Strengthening institutional independence, rebuilding trust, and engaging disaffected citizens are key policy levers for sustaining democratic resilience.
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Suggested citation: Żerkowska-Balas, Marta, Piotr Zagórski, Radosław Markowski. 2026. “Between Renewal and Regression: The Supply and Demand of Illiberalism in Poland” AUTHLIB Country Papers 7.
